Economic statistics have been pointing only one way since the past 3-4 quarters - down! Though the NBER announced a few months back that we 'technically' entered recession some time in Q4 2007, we really didn't feel the intensity of the slow down till Q3 2008, especially after the Lehman-Merrill day in September '08. Almost all indicators are very bleak by now - retail sales fell by 1.8 and 1.2 percent respectively in November and December, with same store sales falling close to 2.2 percent on average as compared to the same period in 2007. This, along with an exteremly depressing unemployment rate of 7.2%, paints the picture of a deep, gloomy slowdown period. The big question in every one's mind is - is this the start of a deeper recession or is the worst behind us? Without doubt, the slowdown has deeply impacted consumer sentiment and thus damaged the trend of the single largest factor which drives over two-thirds of this nation's GDP-consumer spending. However, I would personally argue this is more of a reversal of the exuberant trends seen from '05-'07 rather than point to anything that's inherently unhealthy in this sector. The consumer hasn't stopped spending - just to illustrate this point, let me mention an interesting experience I had when I was at an outlet mall south of Boston recently along with my spouse. 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