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Romney's Running Mate Is Anyone's Guess
abercrombie uk The U.S. news media are rife with speculation about Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Susana Martinez, Bob McDonnell or Rob Portman as possible running mates for Mitt Romney. It’s the time of the political season when conjecture runs wild, much of it ill-informed. Mr. Romney’s choice of a vice-presidential candidate will evolve, in ways unforeseeable today, over the next four months. In weighing the reliability of columns or stories that tell you Mr. Romney is most comfortable with Mr. Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman and budget policy wonk, or that Mr. Rubio, the young Cuban-American freshman senator from Florida, is the linchpin to the Latino vote, consider these examples from recent elections: In April 2000, the leading Democratic contenders were supposed to be Senators John Kerry of Massachusetts or John Edwards of North Carolina. The nominee, Vice President Al Gore, did pick a Democratic senator: Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut. “There was a longer list of Republican contenders that year when Dick Cheney, the former congressman and defense secretary, was tapped to head a search committee. Right before the summer convention, George W. Bush selected Mr. Cheney, who hadn’t been on any list. Four years ago, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware was considered one of the leading contenders. But on the Republican side, John McCain could not have picked Sarah Palin out of a lineup in April 2008. He barely knew who she was when he selected her four months later.
abercrombie and fitch uk Then there’s the supposed electoral weight some candidates bring: Mr. Rubio in Florida or Mr. Portman in Ohio. Yet over the past 40 years and 10 presidential elections, no running mate has made the difference in carrying a state. Vice President Walter Mondale, running with President Jimmy Carter in 1980, is a debatable exception.) Devotees of the Electoral College love to point to Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas winning the presidency for John F. Kennedy in 1960. Mr. Johnson almost surely carried his home state for Mr. Kennedy, but J.F.K. would have won in any case. And there have been highly praised vice-presidential choices that could not even make a difference in their home states: Lloyd Bentsen, the Texas Democrat, in 1988, and Jack Kemp, the New York Republican, in 1996. So much for that theory. That isn’t to say that Mr. Romney’s selection is unimportant. It will help shape what the campaign hopes is a reset — or a shaking of the Etch A Sketch — of the nominee as he faces a different electorate. It can send a message. Both George W. Bush, with Mr. Cheney, and Barack Obama, by picking Mr. Biden, reassured voters about their relative inexperience. Bill Clinton and Mr. Gore symbolized a new generation ready to take charge after the fall of Communism. Ronald Reagan made a bow to the center and governance by selecting George H.W. Bush, though he did so only after the dubious “co-presidency” dream ticket with Gerald Ford collapsed.
abercrombie sale The chief consideration, people who have been through the process agree, is do no harm. Running mates can help marginally; they can hurt substantially. Some previous exposure to the national limelight is helpful; it’s a tough vetting league for rookies. That’s why the Romney team needs to ask hard questions of the more appealing choices. Mr. Rubio’s telegenic youth and his ethnicity provide an attractive balance to Mr. Romney’s awkward, corporate persona. Yet the 40-year-old Florida lawmaker is inexperienced, has not impressed Washington heavyweights with his substance or readiness to be president and still faces some controversies in his home state. Mr. Ryan, 42, is the poster child for the conservative economic establishment. The chairman of the House Budget Committee, he’s a policy expert whom they see as the heir apparent to the late Mr. Kemp. He’s also never run outside his small congressional district and has never shown any of Mr. Kemp’s passion for equal opportunities and civil rights. Mr. Ryan’s fiscal plan could be politically perilous and substantively questionable: He will not say how he would pay for his $4.6 trillion in tax cuts, which principally go to the wealthy. The economic-conservative wing has a big bullhorn in the party. That might deter Mr. Romney from considering Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential aspirant with an economic-populist streak that appeals to evangelicals. Other candidates who might be acceptable to evangelicals and economic conservatives could complicate Mr. Romney’s problems with female voters; such is the case with Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator who has said states should be able to ban contraception, or Governor McDonnell of Virginia, who signed legislation requiring women to undergo an ultrasound before an abortion.
abercrombie fitch Mr. Romney could turn to women like Governors Martinez of New Mexico or Nikki Haley of South Carolina. They both have the same experience — or lack thereof — that Ms. Palin, the former Alaska governor, did four years ago; that memory is too fresh and painful for most Republicans. Governors with a little more seasoning like Bobby Jindal of Louisiana or Brian Sandoval of Nevada have other problems. Mr. Sandoval favors abortion rights, a disqualifier for many Republicans; Mr. Jindal signed a measure encouraging the teaching of creationism in Louisiana schools, which would not play well with the independent suburbanites. Most important will be the conditions of the race. This summer, will Mr. Romney be 10 points behind the president or a few points ahead? Will the economic recovery be stalled or taking root? Will the Republican Party conservative base’s hatred of Mr. Obama overcome weak enthusiasm for a Mormon nominee who is suspected of moderate political tendencies? The most often-cited vice-presidential candidates are above. The odds are four-to-one that on Wednesday, Aug. 29, a person who is not on this list will be anointed at the Republican convention in Tampa, Florida. With the last two Republican running mates that would have been a winning bet.
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